Navigating a Sea of Uncertainty – Part II

By Robyn Bage

Long before the threat of sequestration, the nonprofit sector endured episodes of merciless uncertainty. Staying the course with less than perfect vision is nothing new. Yet, this time it seems different. Perhaps it’s the exponential effects of layers of ambiguity.  Perhaps we’re just tired.

No matter the reason, it is imperative that we effectively plan for a range of contingencies. One way to prepare our organizations for the unpredictable is to engage in scenario planning.

Scenario planning is the identification and analysis of the most relevant and probable future states. It includes creating a tentative course of action. It must also include an unwavering focus on the mission, as this is the North Star for nonprofits.

There are many resources to help you engage in this type of planning. I will talk about components that seem to be common to all of the approaches that I’ve seen or experienced.

The first step, as I mentioned in Navigating a Sea of Uncertainty Part I, is an environmental scan. What’s out there, in the external business environment, with the potential to pose immense problems for your organization? What opportunities exist to counteract the challenges or present new, hopeful possibilities? The next step is to figure out which variables will have the most significant impact. Changes in consumer demographics? Decreases in funding source A and F? Increased regulations or modified compliance criteria?

After identifying the most critical variables, it is time to ask the question, “What if…” Examine the possible impact of change. What if the customer group for your most effective program disappears? What if this revenue source, or that one, is discontinued? What if they both take a significant (greater than 50%) cut? Brainstorm, without judgment, what the worst possible variations would look like for your firm. I suggest inviting input from all layers of your organization to answer these crucial questions. Everyone’s perspective counts.

Once you have looked at all of the worst possible outcomes, pick the most probable scenarios. For example: there may be a chance that your customer group would disappear, but it is more likely that two of your funding streams will receive catastrophic cuts. Brainstorm your possible response to each change. How can you turn lemons into lemonade? Be as creative as possible. When you have come up with a list of viable responses, you can begin to evaluate your ideas and pick the one best response to each variable.

At this point, I strongly suggest that you present your scenarios to your governing body—e.g., the Board of Directors, City Council, Advisory Committee. An oversight group should have the opportunity to weigh in and approve any strategic adjustment. It would be wise to seek this approval before the next step—developing a detailed action plan.

As with all good plans, an action plan (sometimes called a work plan) is required for each contingency.  These identify what, when, where/how, and who. In the event the scenario unfolds, the action plan will ensure a timely and accurate response. This document also facilitates communication, ensuring that each stakeholder has the same information.

Engaging in scenario planning will help your organization to be prepared for the likely outcomes of the changes you predict. It will also enable you to maintain a sense of calm, order and control throughout your firm.

Navigating a Sea of Uncertainty

Uncertainty is a construct that the business sector struggles to define. A recent literature review (McIver, Shimizu and Kim, 2008[1]) noted that the varying explanations of the term render its use practically meaningless. However, it seems that no matter how uncertainty is defined it remains an important concept that impacts decision making in organizations.

The most useful way I’ve found to understand and teach this topic is illustrated in a management textbook[2]. It explains that environmental uncertainty can be assessed by examining three factors: resource scarcity, rate of environmental change, and complexity (i.e., the number of external factors affecting the organization). In a highly uncertain environment, accurate and timely information may be difficult to gather; forecasts maybe unreliable. The more uncertain the environment, the more difficult it is to make decisions.

Based on this characterization, nonprofits operate in a highly uncertain environment. As the 2013 sequestration points, out financial resources are scarce. Funding streams have been reduced or eliminated; the competition for revenue is fierce. Like our for-profit counterparts, nonprofits must manage a rapidly changing environment. New technology, the volatile economy, the evolving demographics of our constituents and the changing political clime require ongoing flexibility. Moreover, the nonprofit sector is incredibly complex.

Fortunately, it is possible to survive and even thrive in an environment of uncertainty. I offer the following considerations:

• Although good data will be hard to find, a comprehensive environmental scan (otherwise known as S.W.O.T. analysis) is critical. The information derived from the scan will lay the foundation for sound scenario planning.
• Scenario planning involves using the information from the environmental analysis to identify a range of possible futures that your organization may face, and then making plans to address those circumstances that you project will exist in each future state.

Scenario planning is akin to creating several alternate strategic plans. The process creates intentional flexibility. Moreover it can foster collaboration, hope, and innovation.

April’s blog will take a closer look at scenario planning.

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[1] Shimizu, K., McIver, D. and Kim B. (2009), “A Critical Review of the Environmental Uncertainty Literature Since 1987″, Working Paper No. 0067MGT-110-2009, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.

[2] MGMT2 2009-2010 Edition; Chuck Williams; University of the Pacific, Centage Learning.

A Call To Action

http://images.virtualtownhall.net

By Robyn J. Bage

The shooting in Newtown, Connecticut on December 14, 2012 was a tragedy of immeasurable proportions. We will always remember the children and adults who died that day.

I will also never forget Saturday December 15, 2012.

When I walked onto the campus, I was struck by the eerie calm. There were none of the usual sounds of a bustling college. Every person I passed wore a dazed, shell-shocked expression as they meandered silently through the halls. In my classroom the students sat closely together, huddled in silence, apparently too anxious to sit in their regular seats but too wounded to engage with each other. When I walked into the room, their anxiety overflowed and poured out of them. Had I heard the news?

At first, they wanted to tell their stories. Several of them knew students, staff or faculty at Sandy Hook. Some had visited the school. Still others had ties to first responders, on the scene and in faraway places. Whether the association was close or distant, real or simply a feeling, the students’ emotions were genuine and profound. Many cried. Older students looked at me with hopelessness in their eyes as they tried to console their younger classmates.

Despair soon transformed into a myriad of heartbreaking questions. How could this happen? Who would want to hurt little children? Why aren’t kids safe in school? Is this school safe? What if one of us had a gun? What would happen if a stranger came in with one? Who can protect us?

Am I safe?

As their teacher, I usually have most of the answers. On this day, I had none.

My blog is not intended to be a political commentary. My words are neither in support of gun control nor against it. I am not casting judgment on our nation’s mental health system. However, I offer this inventory of recent shootings in elementary schools, middle schools, high schools and colleges:

Jan. 5, 2011 Omaha, Nebraska

Jan. 5, 2011 Houston, Texas

May 10, 2011 San Jose, California

Dec. 8, 2011 Blacksburg, Virginia

Feb. 10, 2012 Walpole, New Hampshire

Feb. 27, 2012 Chardon, Ohio

March 6, 2012 Jacksonville, Florida

April 2, 2012 Oakland, Calif.

December 14, 2012 Newtown, Conn.

•January 10, 2013 Taft, California

•January 11, 2013 Detroit, Michigan

•January 15, 2013 St. Louis, Missouri

•January 15, 2013 Hazard, Kentucky

•January 16, 2013 Chicago, Illinois

•January 22, 2013 Houston, Texas

•January 29, 2013 Midland City, Alabama

•January 31, 2013 Atlanta, Georgia

February 26, Conway, South Carolina

Our students deserve to learn in an environment where safety and security is an assumption, not a paralyzing fear or even a worry. Let us consider this list our call to action.

A Peek Behind the Curtain: The Myth of the Perfect Score

As a participant on many author email lists, I’ve been perplexed at some of the requests I’ve seen from my fellow list members. “Please go to this-book-site dot com and review my book. I need more five star reviews!” Please go to my Facebook page and like me. I need 500 likes today.”  “Go to so-and-so dot com and vote for my short-story.” “I’m #4 today. If you go to blah-blah dot com and vote I can make it to #2 by nightfall.”

This type of self-service review system is designed to help consumers make decisions about what book to purchase. If a group of people who read the sorts of books you enjoy give a book the highest accolades, you may be more inclined to buy it. Unfortunately if a percentage of those ‘consumer ratings’ are made by friends and family (who have been persuaded to give it a glowing review), the information is not reliable. The five-star review is transformed into a meaningless artifact, and your customers have been misled.

I’ve experienced a similar phenomenon in the business environment. Several months ago I purchased a new car. When I left the dealership, the salesperson said to me, “In a few days, you’re going to receive an email about the level of service you received. Please take the time to complete the survey. And please rate me with all 5’s. If I get anything less than a 5, it doesn’t count.” A few months later, I went with a friend to buy a new cell phone. Before we left, the customer service representative told her that she would be receiving a survey by text message, and asked her to take the time to complete it. He went on to say the same thing that the car salesman said: If he doesn’t receive 5’s it doesn’t count. Just recently, when paying the bill at a pizzeria, the waitress pointed out their online survey, She said that taking the customer satisfaction survey would enter us into a drawing for $1000. And by the way, she continued, please rate her 5’s on every item because she would get in trouble otherwise.

Many businesses conduct consumer surveys, usually assessing product satisfaction or customer service. The information derived from these assessments should be used to increase quality throughout a business, creating better products and fostering exemplary customer service. It can also be effectively used as data in employee evaluations to improve performance, determine training needs, etc. However, creating a system that rewards employees for perfect scores but penalizes them for anything less not only defeats these important purposes but undermines them.

Of course it is often helpful to offer incentives to your employees, even foster a bit of healthy competition among them. The first employee who solicits 450 surveys gets a gift card. (The more surveys, the more data you have.) The department with the highest effectiveness rating gets a continental breakfast (builds teamwork and shared accountability). Emphasize performance? Yes. But emphasize honesty and integrity too. It will be better for your employees, and for your business.

Hope Against Hopelessness

http://myfootpath.com

In higher education, December is a rush of end-of-the-semester activities: reading papers, proctoring and grading final exams, and helping students manage their overwhelming end-of-the-semester wishes and regrets. In the nonprofit sector, the months of November and December are frenzies of a different sort: Giving Trees, Adopt-a-Family programs, food baskets, toy collections, increased client crises, and helping staff manage their own holiday stressors.  Consequently, as a professor AND a nonprofit administrator, maintaining the “holiday spirit” is always struggle. Looking at the sea of disoriented expressions on the faces of those around me, I can see that I am not alone this year.

It’s no wonder. The past two months have had all the makings of a horror movie. An October storm ravaged the east coast, taking lives and devastating survivors. A December storm has pummeled the midwest and is unleashing destruction on the south. Senseless shootings in New York, Pennsylvania and Newton, Connecticut rocked our nation.  And we are standing on the edge of a cliff that threatens our economic survival.

A cursory glance at trending news articles might lead you to believe that the most important loss of the season is in retail growth. As an indicator of the mood of the nation, it is certainly significant. However, I am worried about a more enduring loss—the loss of hope.

When we are without hope, we feel powerless. We are loath to take action because we believe it won’t matter anyway. Not taking action contributes to the feeling of powerlessness, which exacerbates feelings of hopelessness. It becomes, in essence, a self-fulfilling prophecy because in our despair we forget that there is a salve for hopelessness right at our fingertips:

Do something.

Even in this time of great uncertainty and despondency the solution to hopelessness is action. Write or call your legislators so that your voice is heard. Make a budget for 2013—a Plan A and a Plan B. Commit a random act of kindness, or two. Or 27. Hug your kids more.  Let them hug you, too. Just do something.

I wish you peace, love, health, and happiness throughout this holiday season. May hope motivate all of us through despair and toward action.

Technology Use and Misuse

 

Out of the classroom and into the rest of the world

My September blog on the use of mobile technology in the classroom has sparked interesting conversations. Colleagues in academia, the nonprofit community and the for-profit world were surprised by the following statistics (“Cell phone use and concentration during class”, 2010 University of New Hampshire):

• 50% of students use phones in class.
• 70% check their cell phones 3-10 times during class.
• 26% admit cheating using mobile technology
• College students AGREE with that cell phone use in class affects their concentration and/or decreases the amount of information they receive.

However, cell phones and other mobile technologies are not just prevalent on college campuses. Everywhere you look droves of people across a wide range of demographics are engaged with their cell phones, laptops, and tablets. Talking, texting and web surfing happens while dining in restaurants, patronizing movie theaters (while watching movies!), at sporting events, on subways and buses, walking, shopping, and even while working–or supposedly working. Although there was general agreement about the challenges of cell phone use by college students, one question remained unanswered: What is the impact of mobile technology on the rest of us?

The research confirms what we know intuitively: As observers, we are annoyed by people using technology in public places (Banjo, Yifeng, and Sundar, S., 2008). Seeing people who are seemingly more engaged with their cell phones and iPads than with their immediate surroundings causes us to develop a negative attitude toward them—and for good reason. Cell phone users do not use as many helpful social cues, like smiling, and are therefore perceived as less friendly. Moreover, using a cell phone makes us less aware of the needs of others around us, and we are less likely to offer help if help is needed. Imagine the implication for businesses. Whether employees are taking legitimate, work-related calls or checking their Facebook statuses your customers may perceive them as rude or incompetent. Worse, the perception of poor customer service may be accurate, as your employee will be less likely to help even if your customers clearly are in need of assistance.

The portability of technology seems to have an additional negative impact on business. At routine work group meetings, professional conferences, and in places of businesses in every industry, we behave as if we believe we can engage our mobile technology and also pay attention to the work at hand.  How often have you lead an important meeting and noticed that your colleagues were answering email or texting? At a recent regional conference, I noticed only a small percentage of attendees were not emailing, texting or surfing a website while the presenters had the stage. (It is not difficult to tell the difference between note-taking and texting/emailing/watching YouTube. Ask any college professor.) As above, the research suggests that the presenters or meeting chairs likely experienced the workshop attendees as rude. But perhaps more importantly for business is the research supported fact that, despite our best intentions, human beings do not multitask well. Our productivity declines and accuracy wanes when we attempt to do several tasks simultaneously, especially when those tasks are unrelated.

The implications for management are simple. While technology can give your business a competitive advantage, the (over-)use of mobile technology can undermine it. As managers, help your employees understand why use of cell phones in the workplace has a negative impact on customer service. Have a clear policy in place to limit the use mobile technology at work and enforce it.  Remember what it is like to teach while your students text or hold a meeting while your colleagues answer email.

Be a good role model. Exhibit the behavior you’d like to see. Tweet about the workshop when it ends. Turn off your phones while you are in a staff meeting. And finally be as honest with yourselves as the college students in the aforementioned survey–Recognize that use of mobile technology may be limiting your performance.

Meaningful Work

Walking down the hallway of a very large for-profit business, I overheard two senior managers discussing what they perceived as the plight of the cleaning crew. “I could NEVER clean out someone else’s trash can.” “Can you imagine having to CLEAN all the bathrooms in this place? You couldn’t pay me enough!” Although I assume the speakers did not intend to be rude, they were.

As the daughter of a hardworking, intelligent, savvy woman who made her living cooking, cleaning and serving, I was suitably taken aback. I was also very grateful that the cleaning crew wasn’t around to hear the comments. As a manager and a teacher of our future leaders, I was saddened that managers at the top of the hierarchy, charged with leading people at all levels of the firm, would express such a simplistic and disrespectful view of work.

In 1976, J. Richard Hackman and Greg Oldham developed the job characteristics model (JCM) to advance our understanding of job satisfaction and motivation. JCM tells us that there are five characteristics that are fundamental to all jobs:

• Task identity (the degree to which we complete a “whole” piece of work),
• Autonomy (the level of independence we have to make decisions and get the job done),
• Task significance (the impact the work has on others or the work of others),
• Skill variety (the number of different tasks required),
• Feedback (comments and information we receive about our performance).

These characteristics determine how important we believe our jobs to be and how responsible we feel.

There are concrete steps managers can take to factor in motivational theories like JCM. For example, providing opportunities for all of your employees to interact and get to know each other helps them to experience the impact their work has on colleagues and clients. Making sure that each person can see a project or some component of their job from start to finish increases how responsible he or she feels to get it done. And of course, the opportunity to have variety in our tasks and receive regular feedback about our performance also contributes to our sense of ownership and pride in our work.

It is our duty as managers to design jobs that are motivating, and to create satisfying work environments. This requires more than ensuring adequate salaries and benefits. When our employees find their work meaningful, feel responsible for it, and have information about the results, they enjoy their jobs, and are inspired to do their very best. However, it must start with knowing that we, their supervisors, value them and see meaning in all of the work that is conducted in our place of business.

Management Lessons from the Haul Road

In my experience, students are engaged and learn more easily when they are able to discuss case studies and explore real examples of the art and science of management. Although students seem to enjoy examining cases from my work as an administrator, illustrations of sound—and often unsound—management practice can be found in many interesting places.

One of my current sources of case material is the television show “Ice Road Truckers” (IRT), which airs on the History Channel. Filmed in the arctic regions of Alaska and Canada, IRT depicts extraordinary men and women driving trucks that carry fuel, food, equipment and buildings over frozen lake and ocean water, snow and ice packed hills, and slick curves seemingly too narrow to pass. A glimpse into this raw environment enables us to observe supervisory, disciplinary and administrative decisions made under extreme conditions.

One IRT case chronicled the journey of a new employee. He’d made his way to Alaska for the opportunity to earn substantial money for his family. He also wanted to prove he had the skill needed to master the dangerous terrain. Although he was an experienced driver in the southern States, he was a rookie on the haul road. Unfortunately, he ran into trouble from the moment he arrived and was fired just weeks before the ice road season ended. If his reaction was genuine, we can conclude his termination came as a surprise to him. Issues discussed in case analysis included:

• The impact of organizational culture in employee engagement.
• The role of orientation and training in job retention.
• The effect of discipline versus plans of corrective action on employee morale and productivity.

Developing cases from pop culture, the movies, television shows and music our students recognize fosters interest. It also facilitates active learning and creates an innovative and enjoyable classroom environment.

Technology in the Classroom: Use and Misuse

By: Robyn-Jay Bage

Cell phones have taken over the world. No? They seem to have taken over college campuses, and isn’t that where revolution often begins?

I am not anti-technology. In fact I am a gadget addict and have been from the days of the Betamax. technology, however convenient and useful, can be abused. I am afraid the era of cell phone misuse is upon us. We text while driving. We engage customers with cell phones in our hands. We sit at tables breaking bread with our friends and loved ones while updating our social networking pages. We record concerts on our smartphones instead of being present and enjoying the experience. 

As an educator, I am dismayed at the number of students who sit in class and use their phones to text, answer email, watch videos and update their social networking pages. No matter the activity—lecture, large group discussion, or small group work— and no matter how creative and engaging it may be, these handheld devises command interest and attention. For example, a 2010 study at the University of New Hampshire, (“Cell phone use and concentration during class”) determined that more than 50% of students use their phones in class. Tragically, these students report knowing that cell phone use limits both their concentration and their learning, yet they continue to talk, text and tweet in the classroom. Another study, “Cellular phone use in class: implications for teaching and learning: a pilot study” (Burns, 2010), indicated that more than 80% of students find cell phone use in the classroom distracting; 100% of faculty shared this view. It is often recommended that teachers incorporate technology in classroom as a way to enrich the curriculum and engage students on their own turf. I found an interesting blog in the New York Times’ Learning Network in 2010: Going Mobile: Debating and Using Cellphones in School – NYTimes.com. The authors include a number of options for using cell phones to enhance critical thinking skills. It is true that students become engrossed in learning when it is rooted in the familiar territory of cyberspace. It doesn’t follow, however, that employing technology for legitimate coursework eliminates unauthorized and disruptive use.

Academic institutions have attempted to address the issue of cell phones in the classroom through firm policies and swift penalties, with seemingly little success.  One potential explanation may be that despite the data, students are unaware that their phone use has a negative impact on others. The solution may be to increase their awareness, and make it personally meaningful:

• At the start of the semester, reiterate the institution’s cell phone policy. You may be surprised at the number of students who tell you they didn’t know the school had one.
• Start a conversation by asking the class why they think the policy is in place. If you are adventurous, ask them if they agree or disagree with the policy and why.
• The most powerful voices in the classroom are often the voices of peers. Students who are distracted by their colleagues’ phones use will be your strongest champions. Give them the floor, and support their opinions with data (such as the above findings).
• Offer students your understanding of the importance of being connected to family and work for emergencies. Ask them to let you know if they are expecting an important call or text, one that would require an immediate response and give them permission to step out of the classroom to respond.
• Remind students why classroom etiquette is important. Explain that distracting their colleagues and disrupting the teaching and learning environment is impolite. You can paint a graphic picture (and stimulate further debate) by asking how they would react if you, the instructor, began texting someone while teaching them. I usually end this discussion by promising my students to never treat them rudely or disrespectfully, and to always offer them my very best efforts. I then ask them to promise me the same. If the conversation has been successful, each and every student makes this commitment. 

Of course, cell phones are not the only technology with the potential for misuse. More students are renting e-books instead of buying textbooks, and are bringing laptops and tablets to class. Students have innumerable fun and interesting ways to avoid learning. As a professor, I work hard to create a climate of engagement and mutual respect so that students have what they need to be successful. It is up to them to take advantage of the opportunity to learn.

Do you agree? Are cell phones allowed in your classroom or workplace? How do you manage misuse?

80% of Success is Showing Up

This quote, attributed to Woody Allen, is often used as part of a pep talk, rallying a work team towards excellence and encouraging commitment. But is it true?

The topic of student attendance in college courses is an interesting debate. Among my esteemed colleagues there seems to be two schools of thought.

One philosophy subscribes to the belief that college students are adults, and therefore are entitled to all the rights, responsibilities and decisions that accompany this status.  The decision to attend or not attend class is up to them, and as educators we cannot and should not have more responsibility for student learning than the student.

The other viewpoint believes, with no less conviction, that educators who want students to succeed must institute strong policies that encourage attendance and punish absenteeism. In doing so, the argument continues, we teach students important life lessons. An oft-repeated sentiment sums up the position: “Will employers tolerate continual absence?  Not likely.”

Each perspective seems to be supported by research. In a study reported at the 25^th Annual Conference on the Teaching of Psychology (Motivational Correlates of Academic Success in an Educational Psychology Course, William E. Herman, Department of Psychology State University of NY College at Potsdam; March 2011) the relationship between attendance and course grade was found to be positive and statistically significant. Another recent study[1] found that the link between attendance and academic performance is weak. Additionally, the study concluded that a student’s ability to use substitute material (such as online lecture notes) is a more significant factor.

Both studies noted that today’s college student has competing interests that may interfere with attendance such as work (or lack thereof), housing crises and family issues. As a faculty advisor and instructor I’ve worked with many students who desperately wanted to be in every class but they just couldn’t make it work.  We also learn that students resent strict attendance policies. That, too, can interfere with learning.

My interest has always been in encouraging students to attend each class, recognizing that for some there are lessons to learn and for others, life gets in the way. Herman (2011) offers suggestions that I can attest to because I have practiced them. First, Herman proposes, be certain that attendance actually makes a difference in whether or not students succeed in your class. If it does not, what remains the rationale for a strong policy? You might want to take a new look at your position.

Attendance does make a difference in my classes, as the classroom discussion and the activities we engage in facilitate learning. Students who show up clearly do better than students who do not. I inform my new students of this on the very first day.

Herman further says that you should explicitly discuss attendance at the start of the semester. This should include not only a statement about your policy, but a conversation about the rational for it. As a teacher of business and management courses, I tell them that I run my classroom like a microcosm of the business environment.

Would you just “no show, no call” for work?

What happens if you do?

What happens if you are absent or tardy excessively?

This approach seems to resonate with students, as many of them understand they cannot put their jobs at risk. Students who have other life commitments grow to understand their education as an additional obligation and many are able to reexamine the choices they make. I also offer ample help in this regard, and can refer students to numerous community resources to help them manage their priorities better.

In my opinion, another strategy that seems to have an impact on absenteeism is simply a focus on the work. In my classrooms, some of the assignments are completed during class with my help. Students do not have my help in the same way if they miss class and need to make the work up. For many students, these “in-class graded assignments” have a substantial impact on their learning and their course grade. Consequently they come to class to take advantage of this opportunity.

The debate regarding attendance in higher education will certainly continue. With the research unable to offer a definitive answer, each educator’s experience, values and teaching style will ultimately determine the approached he or she uses in the classroom.

What is your policy? Does it work for your students? Does it work for you?

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[1] Assessment outcome is weakly correlated with lecture attendance: influence of learning style and use of alternative materials.

Horton DM, Wiederman SD, Saint DA. Adv Physiol Educ. 2012 Jun;36(2):108-15.